Crypto Market Faces Extreme Fear on Christmas as ETF Outflows Continue

On December 25, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $87,000 during light trading on Christmas Day, as ongoing ETF outflows and reduced holiday liquidity exerted pressure on the market, according to XWIN Finance. Despite indicators suggesting a decrease in selling pressure and an unprecedented accumulation of stablecoin capital, traders remain caught between cautiousness and fears of sudden price fluctuations. XWIN Finance's Trend Index indicated the market was firmly in a 'mild downtrend' with a score of 34 out of 100, attributing this to sustained ETF withdrawals and selling during U.S. trading hours. Although Bitcoin briefly fell below $87,000 before bouncing back, attempts to regain the $88,000 to $89,000 range have stalled due to heavy resistance influenced by options positioning. In the latest session, around 2,900 BTC—approximately $251 million—were withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs, continuing a trend noted by CryptoPotato, which revealed that cumulative BTC ETF inflows have diminished by nearly $6 billion since their peak in October. Ethereum funds experienced a similar downward trend, remaining net negative weekly despite minor daily recoveries. In contrast, inflows were evident in other areas, such as Solana products and XRP-related ETFs, which gained about $8 million recently, distinguishing XRP as an anomaly among crypto ETFs. Currently, Bitcoin hovers just below $88,000, reflecting a 1% increase for both the day and week, yet still down nearly 20% over the last three months. Volatility remains subdued, with a narrow 24-hour range between $87,000 and $88,000, and the past week has seen fluctuations between $85,000 and just above $90,000. Compared to the wider market, Bitcoin's movements have been relatively restrained, as liquidity-driven fluctuations overshadow trend-following activity. On-chain indicators suggest a more intricate scenario; XWIN points out that whale exchange inflows are at cycle lows and that the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric continues to decline, hinting at reduced selling from long-term holders. However, there is cautious spending from older Bitcoin cohorts, indicating a potential market turning point. Network activity remains subdued, suggesting that robust demand has yet to resurface. According to XWIN's analysis, the prevailing market anxiety is evident in sentiment measures, particularly the Fear and Greed Index, which is currently in 'Extreme Fear' at 24, accompanied by a significant drop in DeFi borrowing since August, indicating less leverage being utilized. Nevertheless, stablecoin supply has surged to an all-time high near $310 billion, revealing substantial amounts of capital on the sidelines. Despite equities and gold reaching record highs and expectations for January rate pauses, XWIN posits that the crypto market's next movements will largely depend on ETF flows and post-expiry options dynamics. Until these factors shift, the market may remain delicate, even as subtle signs of seller fatigue emerge beneath the surface.